News - 2015 General Election
2015 and Social Media: New iBES data released! By Rachel Gibson and...
The BES team are pleased to announce the first stage data release from the internet module of the 2015 British Election Study (iBES). This release consists of a daily tracking file compiled by Crimson Hexagon[1] over the course of the campaign. Tweets from the ‘Firehose’…
BES Vote Validation Variable added to Face to Face Post-Election Survey
It may be a truism to say that elections are decided by those who turn out to vote but from the impact of local campaigns, to understanding why the polls went wrong, knowing who votes and who doesn’t is key to understanding British elections. The…
Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Understanding the Great British Polling Miss
By Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser On Tuesday the inquiry into why the polls went wrong before 2015 election released its preliminary findings. Their main finding agrees with our own research: unrepresentative samples are to blame for the 2015 polling miss. However, inaccurate polling due…
The BES’ Jane Green is ‘Research Communicator of the Year’
One of the nation’s top political studies awards has gone to Professor Jane Green, co-Director of the British Election study. The University of Manchester based academic received the Political Studies Association Research Communicator Award 2015 accolade at a plush ceremony in London on Tuesday night…
The Benefits of Random Probability Sampling: The 2015 BES Face-to-Face
This post reveals the BES 2015 reported vote figures for the face-to-face survey and discusses them in the context of representativeness achieved via random probability sampling and efforts to interview hard-to-reach respondents. The face-to-face survey is an address-based random probability sample of eligible voters living in 600 wards…
Why the polls got it wrong and the British Election Study face-to-face...
The release of the British Election Study post-election face-to-face survey allows us to revisit the question of why the polls went wrong before the 2015 General Election. Based on our internet panel, we previously examined five possible explanations for why the polls went wrong and…
British Election Study 2015 Face-to-face survey v1.0: Release note
This note accompanies the release of the British Election Study face to face survey (version 1.0). Dataset and documentation The dataset and additional documentation are available to download here. Citation Fieldhouse, E., J. Green., G. Evans., H. Schmitt, C. van der Eijk, J. Mellon and…
Learning the right lessons from Labour’s 2015 defeat
Published first by the IPPR in Juncture, and reported by Ross Hawkins on BBC online. Jane Green and Chris Prosser pick apart the factors that underpinned Labour’s disappointing election performance, including the ability of the Conservative and Labour parties to win votes from other parties…
Release! Updated 2015 General Election Results File
Today we are releasing an updated version of our 2015 General Election results file (version 2.0). The file comprises the 2015 election results for each constituency (winning party, vote share, number of votes, turnout, majority and changes in vote share since 2010), the 2010 results (winning party,…
Insights into #GE2015: Presentation by Professor Ed Fieldhouse
This week BES Co-Director Professor Ed Fieldhouse spoke to an ESRC sponsored ‘Chalk and Talk’ event at the Social Market Foundation, London, in which he explored the decline of our two party system. Electoral theory expects proportional systems to enhance smaller party voting and majoritarian electoral…