The big question being asked about Reform UK and the upcoming local elections, and the parliamentary by-election, is whether success this May will mean that Reform is on track to break through nationally. Will gains mean they’re on the march, even towards Number 10?
With research support from Marta Miori, Professor Jane Green, Professor of Political Science and British Politics, and Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre, has outlined four key hurdles for Reform to overcome, even if they do make big gains in May’s local elections.
Watch Jane speak about this on ITV News.
1. Translating Votes To Seats
In 2024’s UK general election, the Liberal Democrats secured 72 seats to Reform UK’s 5, even with a slightly smaller share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats were able to concentrate their vote, and were helped by tactical voting. Reform need to do that too, or gain even greater support to be a beneficiary of Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Gains in local elections don’t necessarily imply gains in MPs in a general election, so Reform both need to gain more support and also present themselves as a party that could form a government.
2. Gaining a Broader Coalition
To date, Reform’s support has mainly come from the right of UK politics, with most of their vote share in 2024’s UK general election coming from the Conservatives. The electorate has now mostly split into two camps, the right side which also supported Brexit, and the left which now supports rejoining. This means it’s much harder for Reform to gain votes from across this divide – in 2024 only 5% of Labour voters saw Reform as their second choice party. Reform also has a problem with female voters; 57.7% of 2024 Reform voters are men, compared 42.3% are women. They’ll need to broaden their support to increase their chances in any general election.
3. Local Elections Aren’t General Elections
Smaller parties tend to do better in local elections than in general elections. And governments tend to do worse in parliamentary by-elections. So Reform UK’s level of support really needs to be very high to know they’re on track for a breakthrough in a general election, along with the bigger challenges they still face.
4. Reform Help And Harm Labour
Labour were able to win 182 seats from the Conservatives in the 2024 UK general election, with Reform now either second place, or a close third place in 86 of those seats. However, in 96 of the 182 Labour won in July last year, Reform are a more distant third, but they are helping Labour by taking votes from the Conservatives, making it easier for Labour to hold them in a future vote, so long as Reform predominantly are taking votes from the Conservatives. Reform face a ‘one step forward, one step back’ problem in their hopes to chip away into Labour’s majority.
While the local election results probably matter most to Reform UK to help them demonstrate a continuing upward trend in support and local representation, understanding how they might translate into a general election result is important for all of us, and certainly matters for how other parties make sense of the results in May.